Crystal Ball does two things, and does both in the open: it ranks stocks with probabilities built to mean what they say, and it builds retirement plans with real tax math — Social Security timing, Roth conversions, survivor planning, all 50 states. No promised returns, no black box. Every number is tracked publicly against what actually happens.
The same honest math, applied to four very different questions. You don't need to know what a "calibrated probability" is to use any of this — the app explains itself as you go.
Not one signal. Three independent rankings calibrated for different holding periods — so you can size your portfolio across conviction levels and time horizons.
You shouldn't need a statistics degree to know whether a prediction service is honest. Here's our whole stance, no fine print required.
The same data science approach extended across the whole retirement lifecycle: dividend-stock screening, payout modeling, and household-level retirement planning with end-to-end encrypted storage. The tax engine is the deep part: Roth conversion ladders, Social Security claim-age math, Medicare IRMAA surcharge thresholds, RMDs under SECURE 2.0, survivor “widow's penalty” modeling, and state income tax for all 50 states. Built for retirees, near-retirees, and anyone serious about their financial future.
Every pick includes probability, expected value, two-sided risk/reward, a stop loss, a sell target, and broker-ready copy. No guessing what the model thinks.
Illustrative example. Real picks are updated from the nightly pipeline and include live prices, stop-loss ratcheting, and historical re-recommendation tracking.
No black box, no "proprietary AI" hand-waving. Here's what's actually happening under the hood.
P(up) · r_up + (1−P) · r_down — the probability-weighted return across both outcomes. Not the degenerate formula that ignores downside.
Three financial lives, gathered into a single clear view — that's the whole product.
Access is currently invite-only. Request access to receive a code when a spot opens, sign in if you already have one, or take the 3-minute tour first — no signup needed.