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Personal Financial Intelligence · Understand → Protect → Plan → Invest

Know where your money goes. Know what your future may require. — then make more informed decisions with what remains. Budget, foundation, retirement, and research, in one honest picture.

Crystal Ball is a personal financial intelligence platform — not a hot-stock service. It starts where sound decisions start: understanding what comes in and where it goes. Then it helps you protect a foundation, model what retirement may require, and surface how much capital may be available to invest. Only then does it bring the same calibrated research that powers our public track record. Educational decision support, not financial advice. No promised returns, ever.

Predictions recorded nightly on the public record
Beat S&P 500
Win rate
Matured positions
Live performance — matured positions only, verified daily against the source database. Our track record is young and still accruing: the first picks mature around August 2026, and the first full 180-day cohorts complete around December 2026. We show what has matured — never extrapolations.

Foundation first. Investing in context, not in isolation.

Five steps, in the order that protects you. Each one feeds the next — so by the time you look at a single stock, it's framed by everything that matters more.

Understand cash flow
Import statements in your browser or enter the basics — Crystal Ball maps what comes in and where it actually goes, by person and category. No advice yet, just an honest mirror. Your statement data is parsed on your device and never stored in readable form.
Build & protect your foundation
Before any market risk: emergency-fund runway, high-interest debt, and any employer match left on the table. We flag the order that protects you first — because a 401(k) match is a return no stock is promised to beat.
Gate · covered before you invest
Model the future
Project net worth and run a real retirement plan — both careers, every account, taxes, Social Security timing, healthcare, and survivor scenarios — in today's dollars. You'll see what your future may require, and stress-test it against shocks instead of guessing.
Identify investable capacity
With the foundation covered and the future modeled, the platform shows how much capital may be available to invest — what's left after your safety net, goals, and plan are accounted for. It's a starting point for your own decision, never an instruction to deploy a dollar.
A planning estimate · not a recommendation
Research opportunities in context
Only now does the research engine enter — calibrated rankings across 60/90/180-day horizons, each with a plain-English thesis, a two-sided risk/reward estimate, and a probability built to mean what it says. Every pick is logged to a public track record and scored as it matures. Educational research, not advice.
Calibrated · tracked in the open

Then it loops: as your plan, balances, and the market change, the picture updates — your foundation is re-checked before any new idea is shown. This is educational decision support, not financial advice.

Wherever you are with money, you're covered.

The same honest math, applied to four very different questions. You don't need to know what a "calibrated probability" is to use any of this — the app explains itself as you go.

Starting out · 20s
First paycheck, first investments
Start with the free Budget Planner to find your real monthly surplus, then see what it compounds into over 30 years. When you're ready to buy your first stock, every pick comes with the reasoning spelled out — no jargon assumed.
Building · 30s–40s
Kids, mortgage, "are we on track?"
Model your household in 15 minutes: both careers, every account, employer match, college years. If you feel behind, the plan shows exactly which lever — saving more, retiring later, claiming smarter — moves your number most.
Nearing retirement · 50s
The last working decade
This is where tax planning earns its keep: Roth conversion ladders, Social Security claim-age math, Medicare IRMAA thresholds, catch-up contributions. The planner models all of it, for every state, under current law including SECURE 2.0.
Retired · 60s+
Making it last — alone or together
Dividend safety screening, payout modeling that answers "will the income outlast the principal?", and survivor planning that most tools skip — including the "widow's penalty," where the surviving spouse files single and taxes jump. We model it so it doesn't surprise you.

Three models for three timeframes.

Not one signal. Three independent rankings calibrated for different holding periods — so you can size your portfolio across conviction levels and time horizons.

💎
Investment Grade LOWER RISK
180-day horizon
Quality-screened companies with strong earnings, insider conviction, and the highest probability of beating the S&P 500 by a clear margin over six months. Built for larger position sizes and longer holds.
  • Institutional-quality fundamentals
  • Composite quality + growth + momentum scoring
  • Tight stop losses (~10%) with ratcheting targets
🚀
Breakout Candidates MED RISK
90-day horizon
Growth-momentum stocks at technical breakout points, backed by fundamental support. Medium-term swings in the balanced middle of our range — every pick scored in public as it matures.
  • Relative strength + growth acceleration
  • Technical breakout pattern recognition
  • Balanced risk / reward — core swing capital
Catalyst Momentum HIGH RISK
60-day horizon
Fast swing trades built on near-term catalysts. The model weighs ML probability together with options-flow and momentum signals — the sharpest, shortest-fuse list of the three.
  • Insider activity + recent catalyst detection
  • Options-chain signals feed the model (IV rank, P/C, OI)
  • Highest risk of the three — keep positions small

Our promises, in plain English.

You shouldn't need a statistics degree to know whether a prediction service is honest. Here's our whole stance, no fine print required.

Probabilities that mean what they say
When we say a stock has a 60% chance of beating the market, that should come true roughly 60% of the time. That's called calibration — we tune for it explicitly, measure it on years of held-out walk-forward history, and publish the chart inside the app, where every live pick is re-scored as it matures.
We count our failures
Most backtests quietly drop companies that went bankrupt or got delisted, which inflates results. Ours keep them in. If a pick goes to zero, it stays in our numbers — that's what "survivorship-honest" means.
Every number has a paper trail
Every score, probability, and tier traces back to the exact model version and the exact nightly run that produced it. Nothing is hand-edited after the fact, and history is never quietly rewritten.
A track record we're still earning
We launched recently, so every prediction is still maturing — the first picks score around August 2026, and the first full 180-day cohorts complete around December 2026. Until then we show only matured, verified results. We'd rather show you a short honest record than a long simulated one.
Reliability, not certainty
Signals are presented as historical setup quality with sample-size context where available — not as oracle predictions. No false precision.
Two-sided risk math
You see downside-to-stop and upside-to-target together — with the reward-per-risk ratio — instead of a single upside number.
Portfolio-aware exposure
A sector-exposure breakdown shows where your open positions are concentrated, so correlated picks don't stack unnoticed.
Your money data stays yours
Your budget and retirement plan are stored on your device; optional sync stores only data encrypted in your browser — we cannot decrypt it. Simulations run statelessly (computed and returned, never kept), and statement imports are parsed on your device, never uploaded, and your imported trade file never leaves your browser (analysis charts use only anonymous ticker-and-date price lookups). The money data we keep on our servers is limited to what you choose to save: the portfolio positions you add (ticker, shares, cost), the net-worth totals you snapshot, and your saved “Ask Crystal Ball” conversations — each kept private to your account and used to show live values, track your progress, and answer your questions.
Who's behind it: Crystal Ball is independently built and operated — a quantitative pipeline that re-scores the market nightly on fresh market, fundamental, options, and macro data, and retrains its models every week. No analysts hand-picking winners, no sponsored tickers, and no commissions on anything you buy. It is a research tool, not investment advice: we will never promise returns, and any service that does should worry you.

Already trading? See how good your sells really are.

Import your brokerage history (E*TRADE, Fidelity, Schwab, Robinhood — CSV, Excel or PDF) and get the analysis your statement never shows: your true profit over time, and whether you sold too soon. Parsed entirely in your browser — your trade file never leaves your device; only anonymous ticker-and-date lookups fetch the benchmark prices.

📈
Your real P&L
Realized + unrealized
Round-trip P&L broken out by 90 days, 1 year and 2 years — money-weighted return (XIRR), win rate, profit factor, and a research-grade quality score (SQN, Sharpe, Sortino).
⏱️
Did you sell too soon?
Graded vs the S&P 500
Every exit graded against what the stock did next — and against the index, so a rising market is never mistaken for a bad sale. See the dollars left on the table, and the exits you nailed.
🧠
Behavior & AI coach
Patterns you can’t see
Disposition effect, revenge-trade & FOMO detection, and position-sizing analysis — then a personalized AI coach you can ask anything about your own trading.
You vs. the model
Unique to Crystal Ball
We compare your trades to what our model rated each stock the day you traded it — “you sold a name the model still rated A.” No other journal can do this.
Retirement Suite · Phases 1–6 Live

Beyond stock picks — a complete retirement platform.

The same data science approach extended across the whole retirement lifecycle: dividend-stock screening, payout modeling, and household-level retirement planning with end-to-end encrypted storage. The tax engine is the deep part: Roth conversion ladders, Social Security claim-age math, Medicare IRMAA surcharge thresholds, RMDs under SECURE 2.0, survivor “widow's penalty” modeling, and state income tax for all 50 states. Built for retirees, near-retirees, and anyone serious about their financial future.

Live sample Top 3 A+ dividend income picks right now
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Ticker names hidden — sign in to see the full ranked list of all A+ picks plus every stock that passed our screening.

Retirement Suite · Product Roadmap
Phase 1
Dividend Income Scoring
Dividend stocks ranked by Safety, Growth, Quality, Value.
Live
Phase 2
Income Monitoring
Ex-dividend calendar with portfolio integration — dividend timing across holdings and watchlist.
Live
Phase 3
Payout Modeling
Monte Carlo simulator — how long your dividends sustain withdrawals.
Live
Phase 4
Retirement Planner
Household-level, tax-aware, end-to-end encrypted — accumulation through decumulation.
Live
Phase 5
Deep Analysis Tools
Basket backtesting vs the S&P, sector rotation & concentration, tax-loss harvesting scan, one-click rebalancing.
Live
Phase 6
Survivor & Healthcare-Bridge Planning
Widow's-penalty tax timeline — single-filer brackets + IRMAA after the first death — and pre-Medicare healthcare cost bridging with ACA Premium Tax Credits.
Live

Every recommendation, decoded.

Every pick includes probability, expected value, two-sided risk/reward, a stop loss, a sell target, and broker-ready copy. No guessing what the model thinks.

RANK #3 · 90D BREAKOUT
NVDA A+
NVIDIA Corporation · Semiconductors
+14%
Expected Value
73%
Prob Beat S&P
+22%
ratchets up, never down
Target
↓12% / ↑22%
1.8:1 ratio
Risk / Reward

Illustrative example. Real picks are updated from the nightly pipeline and include live prices, stop-loss ratcheting, and historical re-recommendation tracking.

Built for people who want to evaluate the model.

No black box, no "proprietary AI" hand-waving. Here's what's actually happening under the hood.

Multi-horizon gradient boosting CORE
One LightGBM classifier per holding period (60 / 90 / 180 days), each tuned by Bayesian search and trained on roughly 90–165 selected features per horizon — pruned from hundreds of engineered candidates across fundamentals, technical signals, options flow, insider activity, and cross-asset momentum.
Walk-forward validation HONEST
Models are validated on future data the training set never sees. A horizon-sized embargo prevents lookahead bias. A strictly time-ordered train / validation / test split — with calibration fit only on held-out data — separates model selection from final evaluation.
Isotonic probability calibration CALIBRATED
Our probabilities mean "chance of beating the S&P 500 by a meaningful margin" — and when the model says 70%, that should happen about 70% of the time, by design, not hope. Calibration is measured on years of held-out walk-forward history, displayed in the app, and re-scored publicly as live picks mature.
Conformal uncertainty intervals 90% CI
Every prediction is generated with a 90% conformal interval around the forecast, logged alongside the pick — "+22% upside" is never treated as a certainty, and the two-sided risk/reward math is shown on every card.
Bidirectional expected value EV
Expected value is P(up) · r_up + (1−P) · r_down — the probability-weighted return across both outcomes. Not the degenerate formula that ignores downside.
Regime detection + drift monitoring LIVE
Feature distributions are checked for drift at every training run, and drifting features are flagged for review. An HMM regime detector reads the market state nightly — and the dashboard shows it.
The daily pipeline
Data acquisition
Prices, fundamentals, corporate actions, options chains, macro data — fetched nightly from our institutional data provider.
Feature engineering
~280 features built from raw data. Strict point-in-time joins. Nothing leaks from the future.
Train & validate
Models retrain weekly on embargoed, time-ordered splits — with Bayesian hyperparameter tuning — and re-score the market nightly.
Predict & rank
Thousands of tickers scored. Top picks selected per model. Every prediction carries its uncertainty band.
Track performance
Every pick is logged. Win rate, alpha, calibration — scored against live market outcomes as each pick matures.
Deliver
Results ready in the app before market open. Broker orders copy-ready.

What we promise — and what we don't.

Crystal Ball helps organize financial information and evaluate possible decisions. It cannot know future market outcomes, and its rankings should be considered alongside diversification, risk tolerance, taxes, investment horizon, and professional advice where appropriate.

Fact
Observed market or account data we didn't produce — a price, your balance.
Your assumption
A value you entered or a default you can change — your retirement age, an inflation rate.
Calculated
Deterministic math on facts plus your assumptions — surplus = income − expenses.
Model estimate
A statistical model's output, uncertain — a pick's probability of beating the S&P.
Historical observation
What happened in past or simulated data — a backtest, the calibration curve.
AI interpretation
Plain-language narrative an AI generated from the above — a pick's thesis sentence.

No outcome is guaranteed. Past and simulated performance does not predict future results. All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Crystal Ball is research and educational information — not investment, tax, or legal advice, and it does not recommend specific securities or transactions.

One clear view

Investing, budgeting, retirement —
one honest picture.

Three financial lives, gathered into a single clear view — that's the whole product.

See it for yourself — the picks and the plan.

Access is currently invite-only. Request access to receive a code when a spot opens, sign in if you already have one, or take the 3-minute tour first — no signup needed.