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Stock selection · Wealth preservation · Retirement planning

Honest numbers for your money — whether you're picking your first stock or planning your last paycheck.

Crystal Ball does two things, and does both in the open: it ranks stocks with probabilities built to mean what they say, and it builds retirement plans with real tax math — Social Security timing, Roth conversions, survivor planning, all 50 states. No promised returns, no black box. Every number is tracked publicly against what actually happens.

Predictions recorded nightly on the public record
Beat S&P 500
Win rate
Matured positions
Live performance — matured positions only, verified daily against the source database. Our track record is young and still accruing: the first picks mature around August 2026, and the first full 180-day cohorts complete around December 2026. We show what has matured — never extrapolations.

Wherever you are with money, you're covered.

The same honest math, applied to four very different questions. You don't need to know what a "calibrated probability" is to use any of this — the app explains itself as you go.

Starting out · 20s
First paycheck, first investments
Start with the free Budget Planner to find your real monthly surplus, then see what it compounds into over 30 years. When you're ready to buy your first stock, every pick comes with the reasoning spelled out — no jargon assumed.
Building · 30s–40s
Kids, mortgage, "are we on track?"
Model your household in 15 minutes: both careers, every account, employer match, college years. If you feel behind, the plan shows exactly which lever — saving more, retiring later, claiming smarter — moves your number most.
Nearing retirement · 50s
The last working decade
This is where tax planning earns its keep: Roth conversion ladders, Social Security claim-age math, Medicare IRMAA thresholds, catch-up contributions. The planner models all of it, for every state, under current law including SECURE 2.0.
Retired · 60s+
Making it last — alone or together
Dividend safety screening, payout modeling that answers "will the income outlast the principal?", and survivor planning that most tools skip — including the "widow's penalty," where the surviving spouse files single and taxes jump. We model it so it doesn't surprise you.

Three models for three timeframes.

Not one signal. Three independent rankings calibrated for different holding periods — so you can size your portfolio across conviction levels and time horizons.

💎
Investment Grade LOWER RISK
180-day horizon
Quality-screened companies with strong earnings, insider conviction, and the highest probability of beating the S&P 500 by a clear margin over six months. Built for larger position sizes and longer holds.
  • Institutional-quality fundamentals
  • Composite quality + growth + momentum scoring
  • Tight stop losses (~10%) with ratcheting targets
🚀
Breakout Candidates MED RISK
90-day horizon
Growth-momentum stocks at technical breakout points, backed by fundamental support. Medium-term swings in the balanced middle of our range — every pick scored in public as it matures.
  • Relative strength + growth acceleration
  • Technical breakout pattern recognition
  • Balanced risk / reward — core swing capital
Catalyst Momentum HIGH RISK
60-day horizon
Fast swing trades built on near-term catalysts. The model weighs ML probability together with options-flow and momentum signals — the sharpest, shortest-fuse list of the three.
  • Insider activity + recent catalyst detection
  • Options-chain signals feed the model (IV rank, P/C, OI)
  • Highest risk of the three — keep positions small

Our promises, in plain English.

You shouldn't need a statistics degree to know whether a prediction service is honest. Here's our whole stance, no fine print required.

Probabilities that mean what they say
When we say a stock has a 60% chance of beating the market, that should come true roughly 60% of the time. That's called calibration — we tune for it explicitly, measure it on years of held-out walk-forward history, and publish the chart inside the app, where every live pick is re-scored as it matures.
We count our failures
Most backtests quietly drop companies that went bankrupt or got delisted, which inflates results. Ours keep them in. If a pick goes to zero, it stays in our numbers — that's what "survivorship-honest" means.
Every number has a paper trail
Every score, probability, and tier traces back to the exact model version and the exact nightly run that produced it. Nothing is hand-edited after the fact, and history is never quietly rewritten.
A track record we're still earning
We launched recently, so every prediction is still maturing — the first picks score around August 2026, and the first full 180-day cohorts complete around December 2026. Until then we show only matured, verified results. We'd rather show you a short honest record than a long simulated one.
Reliability, not certainty
Signals are presented as historical setup quality with sample-size context where available — not as oracle predictions. No false precision.
Two-sided risk math
You see downside-to-stop and upside-to-target together — with the reward-per-risk ratio — instead of a single upside number.
Portfolio-aware exposure
A sector-exposure breakdown shows where your open positions are concentrated, so correlated picks don't stack unnoticed.
Your money data stays yours
Your budget and retirement plan are stored on your device; optional sync stores only data encrypted in your browser — we cannot decrypt it. Simulations run statelessly (computed and returned, never kept), and statement imports are parsed on your device, never uploaded. We never see or store your financial information in readable form.
Who's behind it: Crystal Ball is independently built and operated — a quantitative pipeline that re-scores the market nightly on fresh market, fundamental, options, and macro data, and retrains its models every week. No analysts hand-picking winners, no sponsored tickers, and no commissions on anything you buy. It is a research tool, not investment advice: we will never promise returns, and any service that does should worry you.
Retirement Suite · Phases 1–5 Live

Beyond stock picks — a complete retirement platform.

The same data science approach extended across the whole retirement lifecycle: dividend-stock screening, payout modeling, and household-level retirement planning with end-to-end encrypted storage. The tax engine is the deep part: Roth conversion ladders, Social Security claim-age math, Medicare IRMAA surcharge thresholds, RMDs under SECURE 2.0, survivor “widow's penalty” modeling, and state income tax for all 50 states. Built for retirees, near-retirees, and anyone serious about their financial future.

Live sample Top 3 A+ wealth preservation picks right now
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Ticker names hidden — sign in to see the full ranked list of all A+ picks plus every stock that passed our screening.

Retirement Suite · Product Roadmap
Phase 1
Wealth Preservation Scoring
Dividend stocks ranked by Safety, Growth, Quality, Value.
Live
Phase 2
Income Monitoring
Ex-dividend calendar with portfolio integration — dividend timing across holdings and watchlist.
Live
Phase 3
Payout Modeling
Monte Carlo simulator — how long your dividends sustain withdrawals.
Live
Phase 4
Retirement Planner
Household-level, tax-aware, end-to-end encrypted — accumulation through decumulation.
Live
Phase 5
Deep Analysis Tools
Basket backtesting vs the S&P, sector rotation & concentration, tax-loss harvesting scan, one-click rebalancing.
Live
Next
Survivor & Healthcare-Bridge Planning
Widow's-penalty timeline and pre-Medicare healthcare cost bridging.
In development

Every recommendation, decoded.

Every pick includes probability, expected value, two-sided risk/reward, a stop loss, a sell target, and broker-ready copy. No guessing what the model thinks.

RANK #3 · 90D BREAKOUT
NVDA A+
NVIDIA Corporation · Semiconductors
+14%
Expected Value
73%
Prob Beat S&P
+22%
ratchets up, never down
Target
↓8% / ↑22%
2.7:1 ratio
Risk / Reward

Illustrative example. Real picks are updated from the nightly pipeline and include live prices, stop-loss ratcheting, and historical re-recommendation tracking.

Built for people who want to evaluate the model.

No black box, no "proprietary AI" hand-waving. Here's what's actually happening under the hood.

Multi-horizon gradient boosting CORE
One LightGBM classifier per holding period (60 / 90 / 180 days), each tuned by Bayesian search and trained on roughly 90–165 selected features per horizon — pruned from hundreds of engineered candidates across fundamentals, technical signals, options flow, insider activity, and cross-asset momentum.
Walk-forward validation HONEST
Models are validated on future data the training set never sees. A horizon-sized embargo prevents lookahead bias. A strictly time-ordered train / validation / test split — with calibration fit only on held-out data — separates model selection from final evaluation.
Isotonic probability calibration CALIBRATED
Our probabilities mean "chance of beating the S&P 500 by the horizon's target margin" — and when the model says 70%, that should happen about 70% of the time, by design, not hope. Calibration is measured on years of held-out walk-forward history, displayed in the app, and re-scored publicly as live picks mature.
Conformal uncertainty intervals 90% CI
Every prediction is generated with a 90% conformal interval around the forecast, logged alongside the pick — "+22% upside" is never treated as a certainty, and the two-sided risk/reward math is shown on every card.
Bidirectional expected value EV
Expected value is P(up) · r_up + (1−P) · r_down — the probability-weighted return across both outcomes. Not the degenerate formula that ignores downside.
Regime detection + drift monitoring LIVE
Feature distributions are checked for drift at every training run, and drifting features are flagged for review. An HMM regime detector reads the market state nightly — and the dashboard shows it.
The daily pipeline
Data acquisition
Prices, fundamentals, corporate actions, options chains, macro data — fetched nightly from our institutional data provider.
Feature engineering
~280 features built from raw data. Strict point-in-time joins. Nothing leaks from the future.
Train & validate
Models retrain weekly on embargoed, time-ordered splits — with Bayesian hyperparameter tuning — and re-score the market nightly.
Predict & rank
Thousands of tickers scored. Top picks selected per model. Every prediction carries its uncertainty band.
Track performance
Every pick is logged. Win rate, alpha, calibration — scored against live market outcomes as each pick matures.
Deliver
Results ready in the app before market open. Broker orders copy-ready.
One clear view

Investing, budgeting, retirement —
one honest picture.

Three financial lives, gathered into a single clear view — that's the whole product.

See it for yourself — the picks and the plan.

Access is currently invite-only. Request access to receive a code when a spot opens, sign in if you already have one, or take the 3-minute tour first — no signup needed.